Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 30Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta United FC
1–3FULL TIME
Inter Miami
30% Atlanta
21% Draw
49% Inter
OUR PICK
Inter Miami to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.58 – 2.06
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.35X4.7022.04
Goals 2.5Over1.42Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.44NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.44
GG
69%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Atlanta United FC form
WLLLWH Toronto FC3–1
A New York City FC2–1
H Chicago Fire2–3
H Inter Miami1–3
A CF Montreal0–3
Inter Miami form
WDLWWA New England Revolution1–2
H FC Cincinnati2–2
A New York Red Bulls2–0
A Atlanta United FC1–3
H New York City FC2–0
Head to head
1
Atlanta
1
Draw
3
Inter
Oct 2026Atlanta United FC – Inter Miami1–3
Sept 2026Inter Miami – Atlanta United FC2–2
Oct 2025Inter Miami – Atlanta United FC4–0
Mar 2025Atlanta United FC – Inter Miami1–2
Nov 2024Inter Miami – Atlanta United FC2–3
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes Inter Miami slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (1.58 for Atlanta United FC, 2.06 for Inter Miami), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.