Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 28Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta United FC
1–3FULL TIME
FC Cincinnati
44% Atlanta
21% Draw
35% FC
OUR PICK
Atlanta United FC to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.30
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.81
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.30X4.7322.83
Goals 2.5Over1.36Under3.63
Both scoreGG1.38NG3.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Over 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.38
GG
73%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Atlanta United FC form
WLLLWH Toronto FC3–1
A New York City FC2–1
H Chicago Fire2–3
H Inter Miami1–3
A CF Montreal0–3
FC Cincinnati form
WDWWLH Philadelphia Union1–0
A Inter Miami2–2
A DC United0–2
H DC United2–1
H Columbus Crew0–2
Head to head
1
Atlanta
2
Draw
2
FC
Oct 2026Atlanta United FC – FC Cincinnati1–3
Feb 2026FC Cincinnati – Atlanta United FC2–0
May 2025Atlanta United FC – FC Cincinnati4–2
Mar 2025FC Cincinnati – Atlanta United FC2–2
Feb 2025Atlanta United FC – FC Cincinnati2–2
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Atlanta United FC 44%, the draw 21%, FC Cincinnati 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.02 for Atlanta United FC, 1.81 for FC Cincinnati), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.