Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
80%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 31Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta United FC
2–3FULL TIME
Chicago Fire
32% Atlanta
24% Draw
44% Chicago
OUR PICK
Chicago Fire to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.65
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.13X4.1722.27
Goals 2.5Over1.72Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.66
GG
60%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Atlanta United FC form
WLLLWH Toronto FC3–1
A New York City FC2–1
H Chicago Fire2–3
H Inter Miami1–3
A CF Montreal0–3
Chicago Fire form
WDWLLA Colorado Rapids2–4
H Orlando City SC2–2
A Atlanta United FC2–3
A New England Revolution1–0
H Philadelphia Union1–3
Head to head
0
Atlanta
2
Draw
3
Chicago
Oct 2026Atlanta United FC – Chicago Fire2–3
Apr 2026Chicago Fire – Atlanta United FC1–0
Jul 2025Atlanta United FC – Chicago Fire2–2
May 2025Chicago Fire – Atlanta United FC2–1
Apr 2024Chicago Fire – Atlanta United FC0–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes Chicago Fire slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.37 for Atlanta United FC, 1.65 for Chicago Fire), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.