Over 1.5 goals@1.48
Over 1.5
68%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026
Atlanta
1–0FULL TIME
San Martin Tucuman
45% Atlanta
28% Draw
27% San
OUR PICK
Atlanta to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.21
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.98
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.21X3.6323.68
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.70
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.37
1X
73%
Atlanta form
DWLWWH Midland0–0
A Gimnasia Jujuy1–2
A Gimnasia Y Tiro3–1
H San Martin Tucuman1–0
A Atletico DE Rafaela2–3
San Martin Tucuman form
DLWLWH Colegiales0–0
A Quilmes2–1
H Midland3–2
A Atlanta1–0
H Gimnasia Y Tiro1–0
Head to head
3
Atlanta
1
Draw
1
San
Oct 2026Atlanta – San Martin Tucuman1–0
May 2026San Martin Tucuman – Atlanta0–1
Sept 2025San Martin Tucuman – Atlanta4–0
May 2025Atlanta – San Martin Tucuman3–1
Jul 2022San Martin Tucuman – Atlanta0–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Atlanta slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.21 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.35 for Atlanta, 0.98 for San Martin Tucuman), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.