Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 11Sunday, 1 November 2026 · San Mamés Stadium
Athletic Club
7th · 12 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Real Sociedad
5th · 19 pts50% Athletic
23% Draw
26% Real
OUR PICK
Athletic Club to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.99
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.22
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.99X4.2823.79
Goals 2.5Over1.74Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.71NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.74
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.71
GG
58%
Double chance@1.31
12
77%
Season stats
Athletic ClubReal Sociedad1.3Goals per game1.9
1.0Conceded per game1.8
1.33Points per game1.90
33%Win rate60%
3Goal difference1
6Form, last 5 (pts)12
Athletic Club form
No recent matches.
Real Sociedad form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Athletic
0
Draw
0
Real
These sides haven't met recently.
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid10+1524
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad10+119
6Sevilla10017
7Athletic Club9+312
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Athletic Club slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.99 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.77 for Athletic Club, 1.22 for Real Sociedad), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Athletic Club sit 7th on 12 points; Real Sociedad are 5th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.