Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
73%
BRASerie B · Matchday 33Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · Estadio Joaquim Portugal
Athletic Club
15th · 44 pts2–2FULL TIME
Londrina
18th · 32 pts49% Athletic
25% Draw
26% Londrina
OUR PICK
Athletic Club to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.05
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X3.9523.91
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.94
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Athletic ClubLondrina1.1Goals per game1.3
1.1Conceded per game1.5
1.26Points per game0.89
29%Win rate22%
0Goal difference-9
2Form, last 5 (pts)4
Athletic Club form
LDDLLA Operario-PR1–0
A Avai0–0
H Londrina2–2
A Goias2–1
H Sport Recife1–2
Londrina form
LLWDLH America Mineiro1–3
A CRB2–1
H Cuiaba1–0
A Athletic Club2–2
A Avai2–1
Head to head
3
Athletic
1
Draw
1
Londrina
Oct 2026Athletic Club – Londrina2–2
Jun 2026Londrina – Athletic Club2–0
Oct 2024Athletic Club – Londrina2–1
Sept 2024Londrina – Athletic Club2–3
Jul 2024Athletic Club – Londrina2–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Athletic Club slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.56 for Athletic Club, 1.05 for Londrina), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Athletic Club sit 15th on 44 points; Londrina are 18th on 32.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.