Over 1.5 goals@1.89
Over 1.5
53%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 10Sunday, 25 October 2026 · San Mamés Stadium
Athletic Club
7th · 12 pts4–0FULL TIME
Getafe
18th · 9 pts48% Athletic
32% Draw
20% Getafe
OUR PICK
Athletic Club to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
1.14 – 0.63
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.08X3.1624.92
Goals 2.5Over3.63Under1.35
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.47
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.35
Under 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.47
NG
68%
Double chance@1.26
1X
80%
Season stats
Athletic ClubGetafe1.3Goals per game0.5
1.0Conceded per game1.5
1.33Points per game0.90
33%Win rate20%
3Goal difference-10
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
Athletic Club form
WWLDDA Prat1–6
H Getafe4–0
A Levante3–1
A Valencia0–0
A Rayo Vallecano0–0
Getafe form
WWLLDH Sevilla3–1
A Lebrijana2–3
A Athletic Club4–0
H FC Lugano2–5
H Rayo Vallecano1–1
Head to head
2
Athletic
1
Draw
2
Getafe
Oct 2026Athletic Club – Getafe4–0
Apr 2026Getafe – Athletic Club2–0
Oct 2025Athletic Club – Getafe0–1
May 2025Getafe – Athletic Club0–2
Aug 2024Athletic Club – Getafe1–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid10+1524
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad10+119
6Sevilla10017
7Athletic Club9+312
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Athletic Club slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (1.14 for Athletic Club, 0.63 for Getafe), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Athletic Club sit 7th on 12 points; Getafe are 18th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.