Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ITASerie A · Matchday 6Monday, 12 October 2026 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta
13th · 11 pts3–1FULL TIME
Venezia
20th · 3 pts59% Atalanta
22% Draw
19% Venezia
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Atalanta to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
1.89 – 0.96
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.69X4.5225.34
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Season stats
AtalantaVenezia1.6Goals per game0.6
2.0Conceded per game2.0
1.10Points per game0.30
30%Win rate10%
-4Goal difference-14
5Form, last 5 (pts)3
Atalanta form
LDDLLH Parma0–3
A Fiorentina2–2
H Frosinone4–4
A Ajax2–0
A AC Milan3–2
Venezia form
LLLWLA Como1–0
H Inter0–2
A Genoa1–0
H Napoli1–0
A Atalanta3–1
Head to head
4
Atalanta
1
Draw
0
Venezia
Oct 2026Atalanta – Venezia3–1
Mar 2025Atalanta – Venezia0–0
Oct 2024Venezia – Atalanta0–2
Apr 2022Venezia – Atalanta1–3
Jan 2022Atalanta – Venezia2–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Atalanta clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.89 for Atalanta, 0.96 for Venezia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atalanta sit 13th on 11 points; Venezia are 20th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.