Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
ITASerie A · Matchday 10Monday, 2 November 2026 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta
12th · 11 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Parma
18th · 5 pts63% Atalanta
21% Draw
16% Parma
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Atalanta to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.59
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.88
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.59X4.7626.26
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
50%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
AtalantaParma1.8Goals per game0.6
1.9Conceded per game1.7
1.22Points per game0.56
33%Win rate11%
-1Goal difference-10
5Form, last 5 (pts)4
Atalanta form
No recent matches.
Parma form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Atalanta
0
Draw
0
Parma
These sides haven't met recently.
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio9+1525
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4AC Milan10+921
5Como9+920
6Frosinone9+817
7Napoli9+614
8Bologna10+114
9Juventus9+114
10Torino9013
Match preview
Our model makes Atalanta clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.98 for Atalanta, 0.88 for Parma), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atalanta sit 12th on 11 points; Parma are 18th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.