Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
86%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 5 November 2026 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta
15th · 3 pts18:45KICK-OFF WAT
Kairat Almaty
31st · 1 pts61% Atalanta
20% Draw
19% Kairat
OUR PICK
Atalanta to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.64
Expected goals
2.24 – 1.19
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.64X5.0825.18
Goals 2.5Over1.50Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.61NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.50
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.61
GG
62%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
AtalantaKairat Almaty1.5Goals per game1.0
1.5Conceded per game3.0
1.50Points per game0.50
50%Win rate0%
0Goal difference-4
3Form, last 5 (pts)1
Atalanta form
DDLLWA Fiorentina2–2
H Frosinone4–4
A Ajax2–0
A AC Milan3–2
H Pafos3–1
Kairat Almaty form
DDLWDH Altay1–1
A Aktobe2–2
H Panathinaikos1–5
H Irtysh5–0
A Riga1–1
Head to head
0
Atalanta
0
Draw
0
Kairat
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model makes Atalanta clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.24 for Atalanta, 1.19 for Kairat Almaty), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atalanta sit 15th on 3 points; Kairat Almaty are 31st on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.