Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
ITASerie A · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta
13th · 11 pts4–4FULL TIME
Frosinone
6th · 20 pts24% Atalanta
22% Draw
54% Frosinone
OUR PICK
Frosinone to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.86
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.96
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.13X4.5621.86
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
61%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
AtalantaFrosinone1.6Goals per game2.4
2.0Conceded per game1.4
1.10Points per game2.00
30%Win rate60%
-4Goal difference10
5Form, last 5 (pts)10
Atalanta form
LDDLLH Parma0–3
A Fiorentina2–2
H Frosinone4–4
A Ajax2–0
A AC Milan3–2
Frosinone form
WWDWLH Torino2–0
H Lecce5–1
A Atalanta4–4
H Sassuolo4–2
A Napoli3–0
Head to head
3
Atalanta
1
Draw
1
Frosinone
Oct 2026Atalanta – Frosinone4–4
Jan 2024Atalanta – Frosinone5–0
Aug 2023Frosinone – Atalanta2–1
Jan 2019Frosinone – Atalanta0–5
Aug 2018Atalanta – Frosinone4–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Frosinone slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.86 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.25 for Atalanta, 1.96 for Frosinone), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atalanta sit 13th on 11 points; Frosinone are 6th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.