Over 1.5 goals@1.04
Over 1.5
96%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Villa Park
Aston Villa
2nd · 9 pts3–1FULL TIME
Viking
33rd · 1 pts74% Aston
13% Draw
13% Viking
OUR PICK
Aston Villa to win
Model probability 74% · fair odds
1.34
Expected goals
3.50 – 1.49
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.34X7.7127.95
Goals 2.5Over1.15Under7.26
Both scoreGG1.33NG3.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.15
Over 2.5
87%
Both teams to score@1.33
GG
75%
Double chance@1.14
1X
87%
Season stats
Aston VillaViking4.0Goals per game1.7
1.0Conceded per game3.0
3.00Points per game0.33
100%Win rate0%
9Goal difference-4
9Form, last 5 (pts)5
Aston Villa form
DLWWWH Fulham1–1
A Bournemouth3–0
H Manchester City2–1
H Viking3–1
A Newcastle0–1
Viking form
LWLWDA Bodo/Glimt3–2
H Tromso3–1
A Aston Villa3–1
H Fredrikstad3–2
H Bayern München3–3
Head to head
1
Aston
0
Draw
0
Viking
Oct 2026Aston Villa – Viking3–1
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Aston Villa clear favourites, giving them a 74% chance of winning against 13% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 5.0 goals in total (3.50 for Aston Villa, 1.49 for Viking), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Aston Villa sit 2nd on 9 points; Viking are 33rd on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.