Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 8Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Villa Park
Aston Villa
10th · 12 pts2–1FULL TIME
Manchester City
2nd · 21 pts20% Aston
22% Draw
59% Manchester
OUR PICK
Manchester City to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.95
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.12X4.6021.70
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.24
X2
80%
Season stats
Aston VillaManchester City1.1Goals per game2.2
1.4Conceded per game1.1
1.33Points per game2.33
33%Win rate78%
-3Goal difference10
11Form, last 5 (pts)9
Aston Villa form
DLWWWH Fulham1–1
A Bournemouth3–0
H Manchester City2–1
H Viking3–1
A Newcastle0–1
Manchester City form
LDLWWH Brighton0–1
H Brighton2–2
A Aston Villa2–1
H AEK Athens FC5–1
H Ipswich3–2
Head to head
4
Aston
0
Draw
1
Manchester
Oct 2026Aston Villa – Manchester City2–1
May 2026Manchester City – Aston Villa1–2
Oct 2025Aston Villa – Manchester City1–0
Apr 2025Manchester City – Aston Villa2–1
Dec 2024Aston Villa – Manchester City2–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Manchester City clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.03 for Aston Villa, 1.95 for Manchester City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Aston Villa sit 10th on 12 points; Manchester City are 2nd on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.