Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 9Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Villa Park
Aston Villa
9th · 12 pts1–1FULL TIME
Fulham
15th · 9 pts41% Aston
28% Draw
31% Fulham
OUR PICK
Aston Villa to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.07
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.43X3.6023.23
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
Aston VillaFulham1.1Goals per game1.0
1.4Conceded per game1.2
1.33Points per game1.00
33%Win rate22%
-3Goal difference-2
11Form, last 5 (pts)8
Aston Villa form
DLWWWH Fulham1–1
A Bournemouth3–0
H Manchester City2–1
H Viking3–1
A Newcastle0–1
Fulham form
DLWWLA Aston Villa1–1
H Crystal Palace0–1
A Coventry0–1
H Hull City1–0
A Ipswich2–1
Head to head
3
Aston
1
Draw
1
Fulham
Oct 2026Aston Villa – Fulham1–1
Apr 2026Fulham – Aston Villa1–0
Sept 2025Aston Villa – Fulham3–1
May 2025Aston Villa – Fulham1–0
Oct 2024Fulham – Aston Villa1–3
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Aston Villa slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.28 for Aston Villa, 1.07 for Fulham), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Aston Villa sit 9th on 12 points; Fulham are 15th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.