Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Villa Park
Aston Villa
2nd · 9 pts6–0FULL TIME
Fenerbahçe
31st · 2 pts57% Aston
19% Draw
23% Fenerbahçe
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Aston Villa to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.74
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.50
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.74X5.2024.28
Goals 2.5Over1.34Under3.77
Both scoreGG1.42NG3.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.34
Over 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.42
GG
71%
Double chance@1.24
12
81%
Season stats
Aston VillaFenerbahçe4.0Goals per game1.0
1.0Conceded per game3.0
3.00Points per game0.67
100%Win rate0%
9Goal difference-6
9Form, last 5 (pts)6
Aston Villa form
DLWWWH Fulham1–1
A Bournemouth3–0
H Manchester City2–1
H Viking3–1
A Newcastle0–1
Fenerbahçe form
LLDWLH Göztepe1–2
A Galatasaray2–1
H Slavia Praha2–2
H Alanyaspor3–0
A Aston Villa6–0
Head to head
2
Aston
0
Draw
0
Fenerbahçe
Oct 2026Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe6–0
Jan 2026Fenerbahçe – Aston Villa0–1
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Aston Villa clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.74 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (2.40 for Aston Villa, 1.50 for Fenerbahçe), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Aston Villa sit 2nd on 9 points; Fenerbahçe are 31st on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.