Over 1.5 goals@1.44
Over 1.5
70%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Villa Park
Aston Villa
9th · 12 pts2–2FULL TIME
Brentford
6th · 14 pts25% Aston
26% Draw
49% Brentford
OUR PICK
Brentford to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.05
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.46
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.03X3.7822.05
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.77
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.33
X2
75%
Season stats
Aston VillaBrentford1.1Goals per game1.8
1.4Conceded per game1.0
1.33Points per game1.56
33%Win rate33%
-3Goal difference7
11Form, last 5 (pts)8
Aston Villa form
DLWWWH Fulham1–1
A Bournemouth3–0
H Manchester City2–1
H Viking3–1
A Newcastle0–1
Brentford form
WLDLDH Nottingham Forest2–0
A Sunderland3–2
A Hull City1–1
H Liverpool1–2
A Aston Villa2–2
Head to head
1
Aston
2
Draw
2
Brentford
Oct 2026Aston Villa – Brentford2–2
Feb 2026Aston Villa – Brentford0–1
Sept 2025Brentford – Aston Villa1–1
Aug 2025Brentford – Aston Villa1–0
Mar 2025Brentford – Aston Villa0–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Brentford slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.05 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.96 for Aston Villa, 1.46 for Brentford), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Aston Villa sit 9th on 12 points; Brentford are 6th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.