Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
ITASerie B · Matchday 11Friday, 6 November 2026 · Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
Ascoli
3rd · 19 pts20:30KICK-OFF WAT
Palermo
1st · 26 pts48% Ascoli
25% Draw
27% Palermo
OUR PICK
Ascoli to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.09
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.14
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.09X4.0123.66
Goals 2.5Over1.95Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
AscoliPalermo1.6Goals per game2.4
0.6Conceded per game1.2
1.90Points per game2.60
50%Win rate80%
10Goal difference12
9Form, last 5 (pts)13
Ascoli form
DWWDDA Arezzo0–0
H Sampdoria2–0
A Catanzaro1–6
H Empoli1–1
A Sudtirol0–0
Palermo form
WDWWWH Vicenza Virtus3–1
A Pisa3–3
H Carrarese2–1
A Mantova0–2
A Empoli2–4
Head to head
1
Ascoli
1
Draw
3
Palermo
May 2024Palermo – Ascoli2–2
Sept 2023Ascoli – Palermo0–1
Jan 2023Ascoli – Palermo1–2
Aug 2022Palermo – Ascoli2–3
May 2019Ascoli – Palermo1–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Ascoli slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.09 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.59 for Ascoli, 1.14 for Palermo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ascoli sit 3rd on 19 points; Palermo are 1st on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.