Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
ITASerie B · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Cino e Lillo Del Duca
Ascoli
3rd · 19 pts1–1FULL TIME
Empoli
18th · 8 pts74% Ascoli
18% Draw
9% Empoli
OUR PICK
Ascoli to win
Model probability 74% · fair odds
1.36
Expected goals
2.16 – 0.59
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.36X5.69211.40
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.65
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.65
NG
61%
Double chance@1.10
1X
91%
Season stats
AscoliEmpoli1.6Goals per game1.0
0.6Conceded per game1.7
1.90Points per game0.80
50%Win rate20%
10Goal difference-7
9Form, last 5 (pts)2
Ascoli form
DWWDDA Arezzo0–0
H Sampdoria2–0
A Catanzaro1–6
H Empoli1–1
A Sudtirol0–0
Empoli form
DLLDLH Juve Stabia2–2
A Cesena2–1
H Vicenza Virtus0–2
A Ascoli1–1
H Palermo2–4
Head to head
2
Ascoli
2
Draw
1
Empoli
Oct 2026Ascoli – Empoli1–1
May 2021Ascoli – Empoli2–0
Dec 2020Empoli – Ascoli1–1
Jul 2020Ascoli – Empoli1–0
Dec 2019Empoli – Ascoli2–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Ascoli clear favourites, giving them a 74% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.16 for Ascoli, 0.59 for Empoli), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ascoli sit 3rd on 19 points; Empoli are 18th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.