Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
NOR1. Division · Matchday 25Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Asane Arena
Asane
15th · 26 pts2–1FULL TIME
Sogndal
12th · 30 pts40% Asane
22% Draw
38% Sogndal
OUR PICK
Asane to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.50
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.79
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.50X4.5822.63
Goals 2.5Over1.42Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.43NG3.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.43
GG
70%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
AsaneSogndal1.4Goals per game1.7
2.2Conceded per game2.2
0.90Points per game1.03
24%Win rate28%
-24Goal difference-15
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Asane form
LWWLLH Haugesund1–3
H hodd3–0
A Moss1–3
H Stabaek0–1
A Strommen6–1
Sogndal form
LLWWDA Ranheim2–1
A Lillestrom2–1
H Kongsvinger3–1
H Raufoss2–1
A Egersund3–3
Head to head
1
Asane
2
Draw
2
Sogndal
Oct 2026Asane – Sogndal2–1
Apr 2026Sogndal – Asane2–0
Mar 2026Sogndal – Asane1–1
Aug 2025Asane – Sogndal1–1
May 2025Sogndal – Asane2–0
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Haugesund29+3665
2Stromsgodset29+4563
3Kongsvinger29+3659
4Stabaek29+3358
5ODD Ballklubb29+1146
6Bryne29+243
7Ranheim29+441
8Egersund29-938
9hodd29-1038
10Strommen29-1236
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Asane 40%, the draw 22%, Sogndal 38%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (1.84 for Asane, 1.79 for Sogndal), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Asane sit 15th on 26 points; Sogndal are 12th on 30.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.