Over 1.5 goals@1.07
Over 1.5
94%
ITASerie A · Matchday 11Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Stadio Olimpico
AS Roma
3rd · 24 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Sassuolo
15th · 8 pts82% AS
11% Draw
7% Sassuolo
OUR PICK
AS Roma to win
Model probability 82% · fair odds
1.21
Expected goals
3.50 – 1.03
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.21X9.51213.95
Goals 2.5Over1.21Under5.55
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.21
Over 2.5
83%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
62%
Double chance@1.08
1X
93%
Season stats
AS RomaSassuolo2.8Goals per game1.6
1.0Conceded per game2.4
2.40Points per game0.89
70%Win rate22%
18Goal difference-8
11Form, last 5 (pts)1
AS Roma form
WWDWWA Udinese2–5
H Cagliari4–2
A Napoli3–3
H Slovan Bratislava4–0
H Genoa2–0
Sassuolo form
LLLDLH Lazio2–6
A Como2–0
A Frosinone4–2
H AC Milan1–1
A Monza2–1
Head to head
4
AS
0
Draw
1
Sassuolo
Jan 2026AS Roma – Sassuolo2–0
Oct 2025Sassuolo – AS Roma0–1
Mar 2024AS Roma – Sassuolo1–0
Dec 2023Sassuolo – AS Roma1–2
Mar 2023AS Roma – Sassuolo3–4
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes AS Roma clear favourites, giving them a 82% chance of winning against 11% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.21 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.5 goals in total (3.50 for AS Roma, 1.03 for Sassuolo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AS Roma sit 3rd on 24 points; Sassuolo are 15th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.