Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Stadio Olimpico
AS Roma
15th · 4 pts3–4FULL TIME
Real Madrid
4th · 9 pts48% AS
21% Draw
30% Real
OUR PICK
AS Roma to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.06
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.56
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.06X4.6523.33
Goals 2.5Over1.44Under3.04
Both scoreGG1.46NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.44
Over 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.46
GG
69%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
AS RomaReal Madrid2.7Goals per game3.3
1.7Conceded per game1.7
1.33Points per game3.00
33%Win rate100%
3Goal difference5
4Form, last 5 (pts)9
AS Roma form
WWDWWA Udinese2–5
H Cagliari4–2
A Napoli3–3
H Slovan Bratislava4–0
H Genoa2–0
Real Madrid form
WWWWWA Racing Santander0–3
A Barcelona1–2
H RB Leipzig4–1
H Sevilla4–1
A AS Roma3–4
Head to head
0
AS
0
Draw
5
Real
Oct 2026AS Roma – Real Madrid3–4
Nov 2018AS Roma – Real Madrid0–2
Sept 2018Real Madrid – AS Roma3–0
Aug 2018Real Madrid – AS Roma2–1
Mar 2016Real Madrid – AS Roma2–0
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes AS Roma slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.06 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.02 for AS Roma, 1.56 for Real Madrid), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AS Roma sit 15th on 4 points; Real Madrid are 4th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.