Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
ITASerie A · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stadio Olimpico
AS Roma
3rd · 24 pts2–0FULL TIME
Genoa
11th · 13 pts72% AS
16% Draw
11% Genoa
OUR PICK
AS Roma to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.39
Expected goals
2.49 – 0.89
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.39X6.1028.74
Goals 2.5Over1.53Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.13
1X
89%
Season stats
AS RomaGenoa2.8Goals per game1.0
1.0Conceded per game1.4
2.40Points per game1.30
70%Win rate40%
18Goal difference-4
11Form, last 5 (pts)12
AS Roma form
WWDWWA Udinese2–5
H Cagliari4–2
A Napoli3–3
H Slovan Bratislava4–0
H Genoa2–0
Genoa form
WWWLWA Lecce1–2
H Juventus2–0
H Venezia1–0
A AS Roma2–0
H Fiorentina2–1
Head to head
3
AS
1
Draw
1
Genoa
Oct 2026AS Roma – Genoa2–0
Mar 2026Genoa – AS Roma2–1
Dec 2025AS Roma – Genoa3–1
Jan 2025AS Roma – Genoa3–1
Sept 2024Genoa – AS Roma1–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes AS Roma clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.49 for AS Roma, 0.89 for Genoa), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AS Roma sit 3rd on 24 points; Genoa are 11th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.