Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ITASerie A · Matchday 9Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · Stadio Olimpico
AS Roma
3rd · 24 pts4–2FULL TIME
Cagliari
12th · 13 pts73% AS
17% Draw
9% Cagliari
OUR PICK
AS Roma to win
Model probability 73% · fair odds
1.37
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.64
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.37X5.72210.67
Goals 2.5Over1.85Under2.05
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.73
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.73
NG
58%
Double chance@1.10
1X
91%
Season stats
AS RomaCagliari2.8Goals per game0.9
1.0Conceded per game1.5
2.40Points per game1.30
70%Win rate40%
18Goal difference-6
11Form, last 5 (pts)1
AS Roma form
WWDWWA Udinese2–5
H Cagliari4–2
A Napoli3–3
H Slovan Bratislava4–0
H Genoa2–0
Cagliari form
LLLLDA Lazio2–1
A AS Roma4–2
H Bologna0–2
A Monza4–0
H Juventus1–1
Head to head
3
AS
1
Draw
1
Cagliari
Oct 2026AS Roma – Cagliari4–2
Feb 2026AS Roma – Cagliari2–0
Dec 2025Cagliari – AS Roma1–0
Mar 2025AS Roma – Cagliari1–0
Aug 2024Cagliari – AS Roma0–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes AS Roma clear favourites, giving them a 73% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.20 for AS Roma, 0.64 for Cagliari), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AS Roma sit 3rd on 24 points; Cagliari are 12th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.