Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal
7th · 7 pts3–0FULL TIME
Lille
35th · 0 pts61% Arsenal
18% Draw
21% Lille
OUR PICK
Arsenal to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.65
Expected goals
2.57 – 1.49
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.65X5.5024.74
Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.40NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.40
GG
72%
Double chance@1.22
12
82%
Season stats
ArsenalLille2.0Goals per game1.3
0.7Conceded per game3.3
2.33Points per game0.00
67%Win rate0%
4Goal difference-6
7Form, last 5 (pts)0
Arsenal form
WDWDWA Liverpool0–1
A Fleetwood Town1–1
H Everton2–0
A Bayern München2–2
A Nottingham Forest0–1
Lille form
WDLDLH Lens1–0
A Monaco1–1
H Galatasaray2–4
H Stade Brestois 291–1
A Arsenal3–0
Head to head
1
Arsenal
0
Draw
0
Lille
Oct 2026Arsenal – Lille3–0
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (2.57 for Arsenal, 1.49 for Lille), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Arsenal sit 7th on 7 points; Lille are 35th on 0.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.