Over 1.5 goals@1.95
Over 1.5
51%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal
1st · 24 pts2–1FULL TIME
Leeds
11th · 11 pts49% Arsenal
32% Draw
19% Leeds
OUR PICK
Arsenal to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.02
Expected goals
1.14 – 0.58
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.02X3.1425.33
Goals 2.5Over3.77Under1.33
Both scoreGG3.14NG1.43
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.33
Under 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.43
NG
70%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Season stats
ArsenalLeeds1.6Goals per game1.0
0.6Conceded per game0.9
2.67Points per game1.22
89%Win rate22%
9Goal difference1
12Form, last 5 (pts)3
Arsenal form
WDWDWA Liverpool0–1
A Fleetwood Town1–1
H Everton2–0
A Bayern München2–2
A Nottingham Forest0–1
Leeds form
LDDLDA Bournemouth2–0
A Sunderland0–0
H Manchester United1–1
A Arsenal2–1
H Crystal Palace0–0
Head to head
5
Arsenal
0
Draw
0
Leeds
Oct 2026Arsenal – Leeds2–1
Jan 2026Leeds – Arsenal0–4
Aug 2025Arsenal – Leeds5–0
Apr 2023Arsenal – Leeds4–1
Oct 2022Leeds – Arsenal0–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Arsenal slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.02 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (1.14 for Arsenal, 0.58 for Leeds), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Arsenal sit 1st on 24 points; Leeds are 11th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.