Over 1.5 goals@1.74
Over 1.5
57%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 8Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal
1st · 24 pts2–0FULL TIME
Everton
7th · 13 pts49% Arsenal
30% Draw
21% Everton
OUR PICK
Arsenal to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.02
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.69
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.02X3.3524.84
Goals 2.5Over3.14Under1.44
Both scoreGG2.70NG1.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.44
Under 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.55
NG
65%
Double chance@1.26
1X
79%
Season stats
ArsenalEverton1.6Goals per game1.0
0.6Conceded per game1.0
2.67Points per game1.44
89%Win rate33%
9Goal difference0
12Form, last 5 (pts)7
Arsenal form
WDWDWA Liverpool0–1
A Fleetwood Town1–1
H Everton2–0
A Bayern München2–2
A Nottingham Forest0–1
Everton form
WWLLDA Newcastle0–1
H Newcastle3–1
A Arsenal2–0
H Chelsea0–2
A Hull City2–2
Head to head
3
Arsenal
2
Draw
0
Everton
Oct 2026Arsenal – Everton2–0
Mar 2026Arsenal – Everton2–0
Dec 2025Everton – Arsenal0–1
Apr 2025Everton – Arsenal1–1
Dec 2024Arsenal – Everton0–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Arsenal slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.02 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.24 for Arsenal, 0.69 for Everton), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Arsenal sit 1st on 24 points; Everton are 7th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.