Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 10Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca
5th · 17 pts16:30KICK-OFF WAT
Nacional
15th · 7 pts67% Arouca
20% Draw
13% Nacional
OUR PICK
Arouca to win
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.50
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.74
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.50X4.9027.65
Goals 2.5Over1.96Under1.93
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.82
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.82
NG
55%
Double chance@1.15
1X
87%
Season stats
AroucaNacional1.3Goals per game1.1
0.8Conceded per game2.0
1.89Points per game0.78
56%Win rate22%
5Goal difference-8
8Form, last 5 (pts)3
Arouca form
No recent matches.
Nacional form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Arouca
0
Draw
0
Nacional
These sides haven't met recently.
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara9+718
5Arouca9+517
6Academico Viseu9+217
7GIL Vicente9+114
8Moreirense10-414
9Alverca9011
10SC Braga9-211
Match preview
Our model makes Arouca clear favourites, giving them a 67% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.98 for Arouca, 0.74 for Nacional), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Arouca sit 5th on 17 points; Nacional are 15th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.