Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca
5th · 20 pts1–0FULL TIME
Estrela
12th · 10 pts61% Arouca
21% Draw
18% Estrela
OUR PICK
Arouca to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.65
Expected goals
1.99 – 0.99
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.65X4.7025.50
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
AroucaEstrela1.3Goals per game1.5
0.7Conceded per game1.9
2.00Points per game1.00
60%Win rate20%
6Goal difference-4
10Form, last 5 (pts)1
Arouca form
WWWWDH Nacional1–0
A Alverca0–1
A CF Os Belenenses3–4
H Estrela1–0
A Sporting CP2–2
Estrela form
LLWLLA Moreirense2–1
H Casa Pia0–2
A Fazendense1–2
A Arouca1–0
H Academico Viseu0–2
Head to head
3
Arouca
0
Draw
2
Estrela
Oct 2026Arouca – Estrela1–0
Apr 2026Arouca – Estrela1–0
Dec 2025Estrela – Arouca3–1
Apr 2025Arouca – Estrela1–0
Dec 2024Estrela – Arouca2–1
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model makes Arouca clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.99 for Arouca, 0.99 for Estrela), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Arouca sit 5th on 20 points; Estrela are 12th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.