Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
GER2. Bundesliga · Matchday 8Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Schüco-Arena
Arminia Bielefeld
7th · 14 pts2–1FULL TIME
VfL Osnabrück
10th · 11 pts50% Arminia
23% Draw
28% VfL
OUR PICK
Arminia Bielefeld to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.01
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.34
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.01X4.4223.61
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
62%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
Arminia BielefeldVfL Osnabrück1.6Goals per game1.4
1.5Conceded per game1.7
1.40Points per game1.10
40%Win rate30%
1Goal difference-3
10Form, last 5 (pts)5
Arminia Bielefeld form
WLWWDH Eintracht Braunschweig3–1
A Hertha BSC1–0
H VfL Osnabrück2–1
A VfL Bochum0–1
H Rot-Weiß Essen2–2
VfL Osnabrück form
LWLDLA VfL Wolfsburg2–0
H SpVgg Greuther Fürth3–0
A Arminia Bielefeld2–1
H Dynamo Dresden1–1
H Djurgardens IF0–1
Head to head
3
Arminia
2
Draw
0
VfL
Oct 2026Arminia Bielefeld – VfL Osnabrück2–1
Mar 2025VfL Osnabrück – Arminia Bielefeld0–1
Oct 2024Arminia Bielefeld – VfL Osnabrück3–1
Aug 2020Arminia Bielefeld – VfL Osnabruck1–1
May 2020Arminia Bielefeld – VfL Osnabruck1–1
2. Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hertha BSC10+1528
21. FC Nürnberg10+1121
3VfL Wolfsburg10+1119
41. FC Kaiserslautern10+218
51. FC Magdeburg10+817
61. FC Heidenheim10-115
7Arminia Bielefeld10+114
8FC St. Pauli10012
9SpVgg Greuther Fürth10-312
10VfL Osnabrück10-311
Match preview
Our model makes Arminia Bielefeld slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.86 for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.34 for VfL Osnabrück), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Arminia Bielefeld sit 7th on 14 points; VfL Osnabrück are 10th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.