Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
BULFirst League · Matchday 14Monday, 2 November 2026 · Arena Arda
Arda Kardzhali
6th · 18 pts18:30KICK-OFF WAT
Septemvri Sofia
14th · 8 pts62% Arda
21% Draw
17% Septemvri
OUR PICK
Arda Kardzhali to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.62
Expected goals
1.97 – 0.93
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.62X4.7025.83
Goals 2.5Over1.81Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.21
1X
83%
Season stats
Arda KardzhaliSeptemvri Sofia1.3Goals per game0.8
1.5Conceded per game1.9
1.50Points per game0.67
42%Win rate17%
-2Goal difference-13
2Form, last 5 (pts)0
Arda Kardzhali form
DWLLDH Levski Sofia1–1
A Spartak Plovdiv1–2
A Ludogorets5–0
A Lokomotiv Plovdiv2–0
H Cherno More Varna1–1
Septemvri Sofia form
LLLLA Cherno More Varna2–0
A Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa2–1
H Dunav Ruse2–3
H Botev Plovdiv0–3
Head to head
2
Arda
1
Draw
2
Septemvri
Jul 2026Septemvri Sofia – Arda Kardzhali1–1
Mar 2026Septemvri Sofia – Arda Kardzhali1–4
Oct 2025Arda Kardzhali – Septemvri Sofia0–1
Jul 2025Arda Kardzhali – Septemvri Sofia1–2
Apr 2025Septemvri Sofia – Arda Kardzhali0–4
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Dunav Ruse13-711
10Botev Vratsa12-1110
Match preview
Our model makes Arda Kardzhali clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.62 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.97 for Arda Kardzhali, 0.93 for Septemvri Sofia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Arda Kardzhali sit 6th on 18 points; Septemvri Sofia are 14th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.