Over 1.5 goals@1.57
Over 1.5
64%
SCOChampionship · Matchday 14Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Gayfield Park
Arbroath
8th · 11 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
Ayr Utd
7th · 15 pts21% Arbroath
28% Draw
51% Ayr
OUR PICK
Ayr Utd to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.97
Expected goals
0.79 – 1.38
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.66X3.6121.97
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.59
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.69
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.69
NG
59%
Double chance@1.27
X2
79%
Season stats
ArbroathAyr Utd0.5Goals per game1.1
1.7Conceded per game1.2
0.85Points per game1.25
23%Win rate33%
-15Goal difference-1
0Form, last 5 (pts)7
Arbroath form
LLLLLH Raith Rovers0–4
A Livingston1–0
A Inverness CT2–0
H Morton1–2
A Partick3–0
Ayr Utd form
WLDWH Queen's Park3–2
H Partick0–1
H Dunfermline1–1
A Livingston1–2
Head to head
0
Arbroath
3
Draw
2
Ayr
Aug 2026Ayr Utd – Arbroath2–0
Apr 2026Ayr Utd – Arbroath1–0
Mar 2026Arbroath – Ayr Utd1–1
Nov 2025Ayr Utd – Arbroath1–1
Aug 2025Arbroath – Ayr Utd1–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Partick13+1025
2Raith Rovers13+1124
3Dunfermline13+824
4Stenhousemuir13+123
5Livingston13+720
6Inverness CT13+119
7Ayr Utd12-115
8Arbroath13-1511
9Morton12-810
10Queen's Park13-147
Match preview
Our model makes Ayr Utd slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.97 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.79 for Arbroath, 1.38 for Ayr Utd), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Arbroath sit 8th on 11 points; Ayr Utd are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.