Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
81%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium
Ararat-Armenia
36th · 0 pts0–4FULL TIME
AZ Alkmaar
10th · 6 pts30% Ararat-Armenia
24% Draw
47% AZ
OUR PICK
AZ Alkmaar to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.14
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.73
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.35X4.2522.14
Goals 2.5Over1.69Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.69
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar0.7Goals per game2.0
3.7Conceded per game0.7
0.00Points per game2.00
0%Win rate67%
-9Goal difference4
0Form, last 5 (pts)6
Ararat-Armenia form
WWWLWH Gandzasar3–0
A Olympia Yerevan1–4
H FC Noah2–1
H AZ Alkmaar0–4
A BKMA0–1
AZ Alkmaar form
LLWDWA Ajax1–0
H Twente0–2
A Ararat-Armenia0–4
A Cambuur2–2
H Hapoel Beer Sheva2–1
Head to head
0
Ararat-Armenia
0
Draw
0
AZ
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes AZ Alkmaar slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.34 for Ararat-Armenia, 1.73 for AZ Alkmaar), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ararat-Armenia sit 36th on 0 points; AZ Alkmaar are 10th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.