KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 5Sunday, 1 November 2026

APS Bomet

7th · 5 pts

0–0FULL TIME

Murang'a SEAL

3rd · 6 pts

51% APS

23% Draw

26% Murang'a

OUR PICK

APS Bomet to win

Model probability 51% · fair odds

1.96

Expected goals

1.84 – 1.26

Confidence

Fair

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.96X4.3823.82

Goals 2.5Over1.67Under2.36

Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.23

Over 1.5

82%

Over/Under 2.5@1.67

Over 2.5

60%

Both teams to score@1.66

60%

Double chance@1.30

77%

Season stats

APS BometMurang'a SEAL

1.0Goals per game2.8

0.5Conceded per game2.3

1.25Points per game1.50

25%Win rate50%

2Goal difference2

5Form, last 5 (pts)6

APS Bomet form

DWDLD

H Murang'a SEAL0–0

H 3K3–0

A Nairobi United1–1

H GOR Mahia0–1

A Mathare United0–0

Murang'a SEAL form

DWLWL

A APS Bomet0–0

H Nairobi United3–2

A 3K2–1

H Posta Rangers FC5–1

A GOR Mahia4–2

Head to head

APS

Draw

Murang'a

Nov 2026APS Bomet – Murang'a SEAL0–0

Feb 2026Murang'a SEAL – APS Bomet2–1

Sept 2025APS Bomet – Murang'a SEAL0–2

Jul 2022APS Bomet – Murang'a SEAL1–1

Feb 2022Murang'a SEAL – APS Bomet1–2

FKF Premier League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1GOR Mahia4+512

2KCB4+27

3Murang'a SEAL4+26

4Mara Sugar4+16

5AFC Leopards4+16

6Shabana4+16

7APS Bomet4+25

8Kenya Police405

9Mathare United405

103K4-25

Match preview

Our model makes APS Bomet slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.96 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.84 for APS Bomet, 1.26 for Murang'a SEAL), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

APS Bomet sit 7th on 5 points; Murang'a SEAL are 3rd on 6.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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