KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 2Saturday, 17 October 2026

APS Bomet

9th · 6 pts

0–1FULL TIME

GOR Mahia

1st · 12 pts

44% APS

31% Draw

25% GOR

OUR PICK

APS Bomet to win

Model probability 44% · fair odds

2.27

Expected goals

1.12 – 0.76

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.27X3.2024.04

Goals 2.5Over3.25Under1.41

Both scoreGG2.62NG1.56

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.78

Over 1.5

56%

Over/Under 2.5@1.41

Under 2.5

71%

Both teams to score@1.56

64%

Double chance@1.33

75%

Season stats

APS BometGOR Mahia

0.8Goals per game1.6

0.4Conceded per game0.8

1.20Points per game2.40

20%Win rate80%

2Goal difference4

6Form, last 5 (pts)12

APS Bomet form

DWDLD

H Murang'a SEAL0–0

H 3K3–0

A Nairobi United1–1

H GOR Mahia0–1

A Mathare United0–0

GOR Mahia form

LWWWW

H KCB1–2

A Homeboyz0–1

H Bandari1–0

A APS Bomet0–1

H Murang'a SEAL4–2

Head to head

APS

Draw

GOR

Oct 2026APS Bomet – GOR Mahia0–1

Feb 2026APS Bomet – GOR Mahia1–2

Nov 2025GOR Mahia – APS Bomet1–4

FKF Premier League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1GOR Mahia5+412

2KCB5+310

3AFC Leopards5+39

4Kenya Police5+18

53K5-18

6Murang'a SEAL5+27

7Tusker3+36

8Migori Youth4+26

9APS Bomet5+26

10Shabana506

Match preview

Our model makes APS Bomet slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 31% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.12 for APS Bomet, 0.76 for GOR Mahia), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

APS Bomet sit 9th on 6 points; GOR Mahia are 1st on 12.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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