FRALigue 1 · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Stade Raymond-Kopa

Angers

15th · 8 pts

2–5FULL TIME

Marseille

6th · 15 pts

28% Angers

25% Draw

47% Marseille

OUR PICK

Marseille to win

Model probability 47% · fair odds

2.13

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.56

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X213.60X3.9722.13

Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.93

Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.33

Over 1.5

75%

Over/Under 2.5@1.98

Over 2.5

51%

Both teams to score@1.86

54%

Double chance@1.34

75%

Season stats

AngersMarseille

1.0Goals per game2.2

1.9Conceded per game1.4

0.89Points per game1.67

22%Win rate56%

-8Goal difference7

4Form, last 5 (pts)12

Angers form

LDLLW

A Lyon2–0

H Lorient0–0

H Marseille2–5

A Stade Brestois 295–1

H Estac Troyes2–0

Marseille form

WWLWL

H Toulouse2–0

H Le Havre4–3

A Sturm Graz1–0

A Angers2–5

H Olympiakos Piraeus0–1

Head to head

Angers

Draw

Marseille

Oct 2026Angers – Marseille2–5

Jan 2026Angers – Marseille2–5

Oct 2025Marseille – Angers2–2

Feb 2025Angers – Marseille0–2

Oct 2024Marseille – Angers1–1

Ligue 1 table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Paris Saint Germain9+1120

2Lille9+618

3Lyon9+817

4Paris FC9+617

5Rennes9+116

6Marseille9+715

7Monaco9+215

8Nice9+114

9Lens9+313

10Stade Brestois 299+412

Match preview

Our model makes Marseille slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.13 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.14 for Angers, 1.56 for Marseille), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Angers sit 15th on 8 points; Marseille are 6th on 15.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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