Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
WALPremier League · Matchday 12Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Ammanford Recreation Ground
Ammanford AFC
14th · 9 pts2–1FULL TIME
Holywell
16th · 2 pts40% Ammanford
23% Draw
37% Holywell
OUR PICK
Ammanford AFC to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.47
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.64
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.47X4.4022.72
Goals 2.5Over1.53Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
Ammanford AFCHolywell0.7Goals per game1.0
2.8Conceded per game3.5
0.60Points per game0.14
13%Win rate0%
-32Goal difference-35
6Form, last 5 (pts)1
Ammanford AFC form
LLWWWH Haverfordwest County AFC0–1
A The New Saints9–0
A FC Cwmaman2–4
A Cambrian & Clydach0–1
H Holywell2–1
Holywell form
LDLLA Flint Town United5–0
A Llay Miners Welfare3–3
H The New Saints1–6
A Ammanford AFC2–1
Head to head
1
Ammanford
0
Draw
0
Holywell
Oct 2026Ammanford AFC – Holywell2–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Ammanford AFC 40%, the draw 23%, Holywell 37%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.47 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.73 for Ammanford AFC, 1.64 for Holywell), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ammanford AFC sit 14th on 9 points; Holywell are 16th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.