Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
BRASerie B · Matchday 34Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Arena Independência
America Mineiro
19th · 26 pts1–0FULL TIME
Operario-PR
11th · 51 pts24% America
26% Draw
50% Operario-PR
OUR PICK
Operario-PR to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.99
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.52
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.19X3.8721.99
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.82
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.82
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.93
NG
52%
Double chance@1.31
X2
76%
Season stats
America MineiroOperario-PR0.7Goals per game1.3
1.5Conceded per game1.3
0.72Points per game1.42
19%Win rate39%
-29Goal difference-2
9Form, last 5 (pts)3
America Mineiro form
WWWLLA Londrina1–3
H Cuiaba1–0
H Operario-PR1–0
A Criciuma1–0
H Fortaleza EC0–1
Operario-PR form
LWLLLA Novorizontino2–1
H Athletic Club1–0
A America Mineiro1–0
H Goias0–2
H Botafogo SP1–2
Head to head
1
America
1
Draw
3
Operario-PR
Oct 2026America Mineiro – Operario-PR1–0
Jun 2026Operario-PR – America Mineiro1–0
Sept 2025America Mineiro – Operario-PR1–1
May 2025Operario-PR – America Mineiro1–0
Oct 2024Operario-PR – America Mineiro1–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Operario-PR slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.99 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.96 for America Mineiro, 1.52 for Operario-PR), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
America Mineiro sit 19th on 26 points; Operario-PR are 11th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.