Over 1.5 goals@1.60
Over 1.5
63%
BRASerie B · Matchday 32Wednesday, 7 October 2026 · Arena Independência
America Mineiro
19th · 26 pts0–1FULL TIME
Fortaleza EC
5th · 61 pts19% America
27% Draw
54% Fortaleza
OUR PICK
Fortaleza EC to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.86
Expected goals
0.71 – 1.41
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.31X3.6521.86
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.55
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.62
NG
62%
Double chance@1.23
X2
81%
Season stats
America MineiroFortaleza EC0.7Goals per game1.2
1.5Conceded per game0.9
0.72Points per game1.74
19%Win rate46%
-29Goal difference12
9Form, last 5 (pts)9
America Mineiro form
WWWLLA Londrina1–3
H Cuiaba1–0
H Operario-PR1–0
A Criciuma1–0
H Fortaleza EC0–1
Fortaleza EC form
DWDWDA Ponte Preta2–2
A Sport Recife0–2
H CRB2–2
A America Mineiro0–1
H Nautico Recife1–1
Head to head
1
America
0
Draw
4
Fortaleza
Oct 2026America Mineiro – Fortaleza EC0–1
Jun 2026Fortaleza EC – America Mineiro0–3
Oct 2023Fortaleza EC – America Mineiro3–2
Aug 2023Fortaleza EC – America Mineiro2–1
Aug 2023America Mineiro – Fortaleza EC1–3
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Juventude36+2265
2Novorizontino35+3264
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10Operario-PR35-151
Match preview
Our model makes Fortaleza EC clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.86 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.71 for America Mineiro, 1.41 for Fortaleza EC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
America Mineiro sit 19th on 26 points; Fortaleza EC are 5th on 61.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.