Over 1.5 goals@1.93
Over 1.5
52%
BRASerie B · Matchday 35Monday, 26 October 2026 · Arena Independência
America Mineiro
19th · 26 pts1–0FULL TIME
Cuiaba
13th · 47 pts20% America
32% Draw
48% Cuiaba
OUR PICK
Cuiaba to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.07
Expected goals
0.61 – 1.13
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.04X3.1322.07
Goals 2.5Over3.77Under1.34
Both scoreGG3.04NG1.45
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.34
Under 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.45
NG
69%
Double chance@1.25
X2
80%
Season stats
America MineiroCuiaba0.7Goals per game0.9
1.5Conceded per game0.8
0.72Points per game1.31
19%Win rate31%
-29Goal difference3
9Form, last 5 (pts)1
America Mineiro form
WWWLLA Londrina1–3
H Cuiaba1–0
H Operario-PR1–0
A Criciuma1–0
H Fortaleza EC0–1
Cuiaba form
LLLLDH São Bernardo1–2
A America Mineiro1–0
A Londrina1–0
H Avai0–1
A Vila Nova0–0
Head to head
1
America
2
Draw
2
Cuiaba
Oct 2026America Mineiro – Cuiaba1–0
Jul 2026Cuiaba – America Mineiro1–0
Nov 2025America Mineiro – Cuiaba1–1
Jul 2025Cuiaba – America Mineiro3–1
Sept 2023Cuiaba – America Mineiro2–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Cuiaba slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.07 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (0.61 for America Mineiro, 1.13 for Cuiaba), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
America Mineiro sit 19th on 26 points; Cuiaba are 13th on 47.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.