Over 1.5 goals@1.52
Over 1.5
66%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 14Monday, 12 October 2026 · Olímpico Pascual Guerrero
America de Cali
4th · 33 pts1–2FULL TIME
Independiente Medellin
11th · 26 pts54% America
26% Draw
19% Independiente
OUR PICK
America de Cali to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.84
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.77
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.84X3.8025.17
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.65
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.71
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.71
NG
58%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
America de CaliIndependiente Medellin1.3Goals per game1.4
0.8Conceded per game1.3
1.74Points per game1.37
53%Win rate37%
10Goal difference2
10Form, last 5 (pts)6
America de Cali form
WWWDLH Fortaleza FC2–1
H Cucuta3–1
A Barranquilla0–4
A Bucaramanga1–1
H Independiente Medellin1–2
Independiente Medellin form
WLLLLH Alianza Valledupar2–1
A Internacional de Bogota3–1
A Atletico Nacional2–1
H Once Caldas0–2
A Atletico Nacional3–2
Head to head
1
America
1
Draw
3
Independiente
Oct 2026America de Cali – Independiente Medellin1–2
Mar 2026Independiente Medellin – America de Cali2–1
Dec 2025Independiente Medellin – America de Cali1–1
Nov 2025America de Cali – Independiente Medellin2–1
Nov 2025Independiente Medellin – America de Cali3–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes America de Cali clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.84 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.49 for America de Cali, 0.77 for Independiente Medellin), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
America de Cali sit 4th on 33 points; Independiente Medellin are 11th on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.