Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 11Saturday, 7 November 2026 · FC Alverca Sports Complex
Alverca
10th · 11 pts19:00KICK-OFF WAT
Casa Pia
17th · 7 pts67% Alverca
21% Draw
12% Casa
OUR PICK
Alverca to win
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.50
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.68
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.50X4.7828.01
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.73
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.73
NG
58%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
AlvercaCasa Pia1.3Goals per game0.5
1.4Conceded per game1.9
1.10Points per game0.70
30%Win rate20%
-1Goal difference-14
9Form, last 5 (pts)6
Alverca form
LLLWWA Benfica1–0
H Arouca0–1
A Tondela2–0
A Famalicao1–4
H Rio Ave1–0
Casa Pia form
LWWLWH Sporting CP0–2
A Estrela0–2
A Alpendorada0–1
H Santa Clara0–1
A Estoril1–2
Head to head
2
Alverca
0
Draw
1
Casa
Apr 2026Alverca – Casa Pia3–1
Nov 2025Casa Pia – Alverca0–2
Aug 2025Alverca – Casa Pia2–3
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model makes Alverca clear favourites, giving them a 67% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.91 for Alverca, 0.68 for Casa Pia), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Alverca sit 10th on 11 points; Casa Pia are 17th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.