Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
69%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 9Saturday, 24 October 2026 · FC Alverca Sports Complex
Alverca
10th · 11 pts0–1FULL TIME
Arouca
5th · 20 pts33% Alverca
28% Draw
40% Arouca
OUR PICK
Arouca to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.53
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.26
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.05X3.6122.53
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.74
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.74
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.93
NG
52%
Double chance@1.38
12
72%
Season stats
AlvercaArouca1.3Goals per game1.3
1.4Conceded per game0.7
1.10Points per game2.00
30%Win rate60%
-1Goal difference6
9Form, last 5 (pts)10
Alverca form
LLLWWA Benfica1–0
H Arouca0–1
A Tondela2–0
A Famalicao1–4
H Rio Ave1–0
Arouca form
WWWWDH Nacional1–0
A Alverca0–1
A CF Os Belenenses3–4
H Estrela1–0
A Sporting CP2–2
Head to head
1
Alverca
0
Draw
2
Arouca
Oct 2026Alverca – Arouca0–1
Apr 2026Alverca – Arouca2–1
Dec 2025Arouca – Alverca1–0
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Alverca 33%, the draw 28%, Arouca 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.12 for Alverca, 1.26 for Arouca), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Alverca sit 10th on 11 points; Arouca are 5th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.