Over 1.5 goals@2.06
Over 1.5
48%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento
Almirante Brown
6th · 51 pts1–1FULL TIME
San Miguel
18th · 33 pts50% Almirante
33% Draw
17% San
OUR PICK
Almirante Brown to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.99
Expected goals
1.11 – 0.52
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.99X3.0625.81
Goals 2.5Over4.29Under1.29
Both scoreGG3.49NG1.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.29
Under 2.5
78%
Both teams to score@1.37
NG
73%
Double chance@1.21
1X
83%
Season stats
Almirante BrownSan Miguel0.8Goals per game0.8
0.7Conceded per game1.2
1.42Points per game0.92
36%Win rate17%
4Goal difference-15
5Form, last 5 (pts)2
Almirante Brown form
LWDDLA Godoy Cruz2–1
H Deportivo Moron1–0
A Colon Santa Fe2–2
H San Miguel1–1
A San Telmo3–2
San Miguel form
LDLDLH Deportivo Madryn0–1
A Defensores De Belgrano0–0
H Ciudad de Bolívar1–2
A Almirante Brown1–1
H Atletico Mitre0–2
Head to head
1
Almirante
3
Draw
1
San
Oct 2026Almirante Brown – San Miguel1–1
May 2026San Miguel – Almirante Brown1–0
Oct 2019Almirante Brown – San Miguel3–0
Mar 2019Almirante Brown – San Miguel0–0
Sept 2018San Miguel – Almirante Brown0–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Almirante Brown clear favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 33% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.99 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (1.11 for Almirante Brown, 0.52 for San Miguel), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Almirante Brown sit 6th on 51 points; San Miguel are 18th on 33.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.