Over 1.5 goals@1.68
Over 1.5
60%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 35Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento
Almirante Brown
6th · 51 pts1–0FULL TIME
Deportivo Moron
3rd · 61 pts34% Almirante
31% Draw
35% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Deportivo Moron to win
Model probability 35% · fair odds
2.82
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.02
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.96X3.2522.82
Goals 2.5Over2.86Under1.48
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.67
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Under 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.67
NG
60%
Double chance@1.44
12
69%
Season stats
Almirante BrownDeportivo Moron0.8Goals per game1.5
0.7Conceded per game1.0
1.42Points per game1.69
36%Win rate50%
4Goal difference16
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
Almirante Brown form
LWDDLA Godoy Cruz2–1
H Deportivo Moron1–0
A Colon Santa Fe2–2
H San Miguel1–1
A San Telmo3–2
Deportivo Moron form
WLLLWH Ciudad de Bolívar2–0
A Almirante Brown1–0
H Atletico Mitre0–2
A CA Estudiantes2–0
H All Boys2–1
Head to head
2
Almirante
1
Draw
2
Deportivo
Oct 2026Almirante Brown – Deportivo Moron1–0
Jun 2026Deportivo Moron – Almirante Brown1–0
Jun 2025Deportivo Moron – Almirante Brown2–0
Feb 2025Almirante Brown – Deportivo Moron1–1
Aug 2024Deportivo Moron – Almirante Brown0–1
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Almirante Brown 34%, the draw 31%, Deportivo Moron 35%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (0.99 for Almirante Brown, 1.02 for Deportivo Moron), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Almirante Brown sit 6th on 51 points; Deportivo Moron are 3rd on 61.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.