Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 11Saturday, 24 October 2026 · UD Almería Stadium
Almeria
2nd · 26 pts2–2FULL TIME
Oviedo
9th · 18 pts57% Almeria
25% Draw
18% Oviedo
OUR PICK
Almeria to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.78
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.75X4.0325.55
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.75
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.76
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.76
NG
57%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
AlmeriaOviedo1.9Goals per game1.4
0.8Conceded per game1.1
2.17Points per game1.64
67%Win rate45%
13Goal difference3
11Form, last 5 (pts)10
Almeria form
DWDWWA Eibar1–1
A Castellonense1–2
H Oviedo2–2
A Real Sociedad II2–4
H Leganes3–0
Oviedo form
DDWWLA Numancia3–3
A Almeria2–2
A AD Ceuta FC1–2
H Eibar3–1
A Eldense4–1
Head to head
0
Almeria
3
Draw
2
Oviedo
Oct 2026Almeria – Oviedo2–2
Jun 2025Oviedo – Almeria1–1
Jun 2025Almeria – Oviedo1–2
Feb 2025Almeria – Oviedo1–1
Oct 2024Oviedo – Almeria3–2
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Sporting Gijon12022
6Girona12+1121
7Burgos12+421
8Mallorca11+719
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Almeria clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.61 for Almeria, 0.78 for Oviedo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Almeria sit 2nd on 26 points; Oviedo are 9th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.