Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 9Sunday, 11 October 2026 · UD Almería Stadium
Almeria
2nd · 26 pts3–0FULL TIME
Leganes
17th · 12 pts70% Almeria
19% Draw
11% Leganes
OUR PICK
Almeria to win
Model probability 70% · fair odds
1.43
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.69
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.43X5.2428.93
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.77
NG
56%
Double chance@1.13
1X
89%
Season stats
AlmeriaLeganes1.9Goals per game0.8
0.8Conceded per game1.7
2.17Points per game1.00
67%Win rate25%
13Goal difference-10
11Form, last 5 (pts)1
Almeria form
DWDWWA Eibar1–1
A Castellonense1–2
H Oviedo2–2
A Real Sociedad II2–4
H Leganes3–0
Leganes form
DLLLLH Mallorca1–1
H Cordoba0–1
A Almeria3–0
A Cadiz4–0
H Castellón0–2
Head to head
3
Almeria
1
Draw
1
Leganes
Oct 2026Almeria – Leganes3–0
Apr 2026Almeria – Leganes2–1
Nov 2025Leganes – Almeria0–3
Jan 2025Almeria – Leganes2–3
May 2022Leganes – Almeria2–2
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Almeria clear favourites, giving them a 70% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.08 for Almeria, 0.69 for Leganes), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Almeria sit 2nd on 26 points; Leganes are 17th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.