ESPSegunda División · Matchday 8Saturday, 3 October 2026 · UD Almería Stadium

Almeria

2nd · 26 pts

2–1FULL TIME

Burgos

7th · 21 pts

54% Almeria

25% Draw

21% Burgos

OUR PICK

Almeria to win

Model probability 54% · fair odds

1.87

Expected goals

1.60 – 0.91

Confidence

Fair

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.87X3.9924.67

Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.85

Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.40

Over 1.5

71%

Over/Under 2.5@1.85

Under 2.5

54%

Both teams to score@1.91

52%

Double chance@1.27

79%

Season stats

AlmeriaBurgos

1.9Goals per game1.4

0.8Conceded per game1.1

2.17Points per game1.75

67%Win rate50%

13Goal difference4

11Form, last 5 (pts)7

Almeria form

DWDWW

A Eibar1–1

A Castellonense1–2

H Oviedo2–2

A Real Sociedad II2–4

H Leganes3–0

Burgos form

DWWWL

H Castellón1–1

A Laredo2–4

A FC Andorra2–3

H Sabadell1–0

H Granada CF0–1

Head to head

Almeria

Draw

Burgos

Oct 2026Almeria – Burgos2–1

May 2026Burgos – Almeria0–0

Dec 2025Almeria – Burgos1–2

Mar 2025Burgos – Almeria3–1

Oct 2024Almeria – Burgos2–0

Segunda División table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Castellón12+1827

2Almeria12+1326

3Eibar12+723

4Granada CF12+623

5Sporting Gijon12022

6Girona12+1121

7Burgos12+421

8Mallorca11+719

9Oviedo11+318

10Sabadell12+117

Match preview

Our model makes Almeria clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.87 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.60 for Almeria, 0.91 for Burgos), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Almeria sit 2nd on 26 points; Burgos are 7th on 21.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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