Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
89%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Yanmar Stadion
Almere City FC
3rd · 25 pts1–0FULL TIME
FC Volendam
7th · 19 pts56% Almere
20% Draw
24% FC
OUR PICK
Almere City FC to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
2.29 – 1.46
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.78X5.0324.16
Goals 2.5Over1.38Under3.37
Both scoreGG1.45NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.38
Over 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.45
GG
69%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
Almere City FCFC Volendam2.1Goals per game2.3
1.0Conceded per game1.7
1.92Points per game1.46
62%Win rate46%
14Goal difference8
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Almere City FC form
WWLLWA Waalwijk1–2
A Telstar0–2
H Roda2–3
A Emmen2–1
H FC Eindhoven3–0
FC Volendam form
LLWDWH De Graafschap1–2
A FC Eindhoven5–3
H Jong Utrecht6–2
A Waalwijk1–1
H Vitesse2–0
Head to head
3
Almere
1
Draw
1
FC
Oct 2026Almere City FC – FC Volendam1–0
Jul 2026Almere City FC – FC Volendam2–1
Mar 2024Almere City FC – FC Volendam1–1
Jan 2024FC Volendam – Almere City FC0–1
Dec 2021Almere City FC – FC Volendam2–3
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Almere City FC clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.29 for Almere City FC, 1.46 for FC Volendam), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Almere City FC sit 3rd on 25 points; FC Volendam are 7th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.