Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
86%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · Yanmar Stadion
Almere City FC
3rd · 25 pts3–0FULL TIME
FC Eindhoven
19th · 11 pts69% Almere
17% Draw
14% FC
OUR PICK
Almere City FC to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.45
Expected goals
2.44 – 0.99
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.45X5.7727.39
Goals 2.5Over1.50Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.74NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.50
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.74
GG
57%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
Almere City FCFC Eindhoven2.1Goals per game1.4
1.0Conceded per game2.2
1.92Points per game0.85
62%Win rate23%
14Goal difference-10
9Form, last 5 (pts)1
Almere City FC form
WWLLWA Waalwijk1–2
A Telstar0–2
H Roda2–3
A Emmen2–1
H FC Eindhoven3–0
FC Eindhoven form
LWLLLA Helmond Sport3–2
H FC Volendam5–3
H Jong PSV U211–2
H Vitesse0–1
A Almere City FC3–0
Head to head
3
Almere
0
Draw
2
FC
Oct 2026Almere City FC – FC Eindhoven3–0
Feb 2026FC Eindhoven – Almere City FC3–2
Sept 2025Almere City FC – FC Eindhoven5–0
May 2023Almere City FC – FC Eindhoven3–1
May 2023FC Eindhoven – Almere City FC1–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Almere City FC clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.44 for Almere City FC, 0.99 for FC Eindhoven), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Almere City FC sit 3rd on 25 points; FC Eindhoven are 19th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.