Over 1.5 goals@1.80
Over 1.5
55%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio Tres de Febrero
Almagro
2–1FULL TIME
Chacarita Juniors
38% Almagro
32% Draw
30% Chacarita
OUR PICK
Almagro to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.65
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.86
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.65X3.1123.32
Goals 2.5Over3.25Under1.40
Both scoreGG2.62NG1.57
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Under 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.57
NG
64%
Double chance@1.43
1X
70%
Almagro form
LDLWWA Agropecuario2–1
H Tristan Suarez1–1
A Club Atlético Güemes2–1
H Chacarita Juniors2–1
A San Martin S.J.1–2
Chacarita Juniors form
WWWLWH Nueva Chicago2–0
A Temperley0–1
H Deportivo Maipu1–0
A Almagro2–1
H Patronato1–0
Head to head
2
Almagro
0
Draw
3
Chacarita
Oct 2026Almagro – Chacarita Juniors2–1
May 2026Chacarita Juniors – Almagro1–0
Apr 2022Almagro – Chacarita Juniors1–3
Jan 2021Almagro – Chacarita Juniors0–2
Mar 2020Chacarita Juniors – Almagro1–2
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Almagro 38%, the draw 32%, Chacarita Juniors 30%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.00 for Almagro, 0.86 for Chacarita Juniors), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.